Preventive Priorities Survey 2014 Essay

In this article the author has written about a keep up conducted by The Center for Preventive Action which is Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) that value the current and all the possible struggles which set up overhaul in the approach years of US and how they can influence U.S. interests . The purpose of PPS is to help the U.S. policymaking confederacy primarily to prevent conflicts and all the incentives that can erupt a conflict . In the conflict preventive keep an eye on there are galore(postnominal) possible sources of asymmetry and conflict around the world that the United States should chastise to avoid. Predicting which conflicts are more likely to occur and can pose a greater threat to U.S. interests than others helps to decide where to focus attention and resources. PPS is a qualitative evaluation that uses the informed judgement of the experts to check all the possible threats and gambles that can destroy US interests by erupting a conflict. To help the experts with their estimations and cope up with the situation , the survey offered general guidelines to check the relative probability and move of potential contingencies which a US could face.These contingencies were categorized in different levels as high , conduct and low based on their chance of occurring and their military capability of uphold on US interests. The PPS did not include the potential frugal or financial crises or any natural calamity or environmental problems , PPS is primarily concerned with the discrete geopolitical contingencies .Also the PPS represents the experts opinion at the time the survey was conducted. Risk assessments can remove rapidly and oftenly. The results, therefore, could be quite different after several months. on that point is a certain methodology to carry out this survey which the perfume for preventive actions performs in different stages of which first stage is soliciting the PPS contingencies in which certified public accountant used a v ariety of social media platforms as well as its blog on CFR.org to seek suggestions for contingencies to include in the 2014 survey.With the help of the Council on Foreign Relations, certified public accountant extracted hundreds of suggestions into thirty contingencies considering both ,possibility to occur everyplace the next twelve months and potentially harmful to U.S. interests. The nest stage was polling of experts in which the survey was sent to more than 1200 government officials ,foreign policy experts and academics to evaluate the likelihood and poteintial conflict of each contingency on US inetrestaccording to the distinct criteria. Ultimately the most popular suggestions were include in the survey. Then comes the net stage that is categorizing the contingencies in which the survey results were uniformly scored and contingencies were sorted into one of trey preventive priority tiers in accordance to their placement in the risk assessmemnt matrix. There are three tier s in assessing the contingencies in PPS .In grade 1 Contingencies judged high preventive priorities for U.S. policymakers because in tier 1 those contingencies were included which had a intense impact on US interests and their chance to occur was moderate like the Syrian civil war ,a highly exuberant cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure ,threat of military strikes against Iran , a pile incident terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland ,a severe North Korean crisis caused by a military provocation, infixed political mental unsoundness, or threatening nuclear weapons/ ICBM-related activities. Then comes the contingencies which had moderate impact but high likelihood such as ontogeny force-out and asymmetry in Afghanistan resulting from the drawdown of coalition forces and/or contested national elections ,increase internal violence and political instability in Pakistan ,strengthening of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula resulting from continued political instability in Y emen and/or backlash from U.S. counterterrorism operations, civil war in Iraq ,growing political instability and civil violence in Jordan triggered by spillover from the Syrian civil war.In grade 2 Contingencies judged mid-level preventive priorities for U.S. policymakers as those contingencies are includedin tier 2 which had moderate accomplishments and moderate chance to occur such as deterioration of the political situation in Egypt, increased sectarian violence and political instability in Lebanon ,continuing conflict in Somalia, political instability and growing militancy in Libya ,drug-related violence in Mexico, a severe Indo-Pakistani military opponent due to Kashmir. Also there were contingencies which had high impact and low likelihood which are an armed confrontation in the eastern hemisphere China Sea between China and Japan ,an armed confrontation in the South China Sea between China and south-east Asian plaintiff to disputed mari- time areas. It in any case inclu des contingencies with low load on US and high likelihood of occurrence like increasing sectarian violence and political instability in Nigeria ,violence and risk of mass killing in the Central African Republic .In Tier 3 Contingencies judged low preventive priorities for U.S.policymakers as it included those contingencies which had moderate effect on US interests and their chance of occurrence was low such as a Sino-Indian clash .it also included contingencies with low impact and moderate likelihood which were destabilization of Mali, growing popular unrest and political instability in Sudan , military conflict between Sudan and South Sudan due to allowance resource disputes ,conflict in the Kurdish- dominated regions of Turkey and the Middle East , growing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo , internal violence in Bangladesh surrounding the general elections. Tier 3 also included contingencies with low impact and low likelihood such as political crisis in Venezuela leading to civil violence and potential regional instability , an outbreak of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan . So this survey played a vital role to find out and shit preventive measures for all the current and upcoming conflicts which could have any unfortunate effect on US interests.This survey helped the experts to assess the contingencies and suggest those to CPA which could adversely influence US so the policymakers then worked according to the gaudiness of the contingencies suggested . PPS is very helpful for the center of preventive action to check the impact and likelihood of the contingencies which could occur and they carried out all their activities according to the strength of the contingencies which they deliberate on the risk assessing matrix and placed them in different tiers and took preventative measures to protect the US interests and security.